Radiology + Statistics = Trouble

New Model Predicts Whether Patients Will Be Free Of Renal Cancer 12 Years After Initial Treatment (click) This sounds like great research. NOT! This is complete bullsh*t. The type of research combines two of my least favorite scientific fields – radiology and statistics – to guide people in making life and death decisions based on only CT scans obtained BEFORE surgery.

I am sorry, this one hits way to close to home. When I was first diagnosed, bad radiology almost resulted in my death. The first problem was with my first CT scan. The doctors initially thought the tumor was had invaded my spleen and pancreas. Local invasion means stage IV kidney cancer. They then sent me for a chest CT scan. That scan revealed all sorts of crap. There were numerous lymph nodes that were questionable, a spot on my lung, and a six inch long ill-defined mass sitting next to my aorta. That scan also meant stage IV kidney cancer. The doctors were debating whether or not to even do the surgery. So, based on the CT reports, some off them wanted to leave the tumor in there. The doctors I ended up with decided just to focus on one step at time. Guess what? The tumor itself was not attached to anything besides the kidney. It popped right out. The mass next to my aorta disappeared on my next CT scan. I still don’t fully understand that one. And, the other crap in my chest is still there but has not changed in two and a half years. It is not cancer.

Anyway, I took a look at the model. I ignored the stuff that indicated Stage IV disease to see how it would effect my pre-surgery diagnosis. My tumor was 24 cm’s. So I got the full credit of 100 pt here. I am male, so I get five bonus points here. The tumor was necrotic. Five more points. The presentation was localized. Plus fifteen. Total score 125. According to the chart, that gives me twelve year survival odds of about 25% at the time of the surgery. And that number only comes out AFTER ignoring the signs stage IV disease. This is why the doctors were saying my chances were not good even if they could get the tumor out and the CT scans had come back clean.

What does all this mean? I think it means absolutely nothing. My current doctors think I have a great chance right now. They never focused on the early odds anyway. They just plowed ahead. Combining radiology with statistical predictions is an INCREDIBLY STUPID IDEA when dealing with cancer!! It almost killed me.